For a week now, all the media have been living what is happening in the Middle East. Few portals, however, pay attention to what the real causes of the US-Iran conflict may be. In this text we will consider what really lies behind a potential new war.
Money rules the world
Since the Phoenicians invented money, there is nothing in the world for nothing,” a famous proverb says. And unfortunately it’s true. All the wars in the history of mankind have also been caused by the struggle for resources in the broadest sense of the word (perhaps apart from the mythical Trojan War, which in a truly romantic way broke out for the beloved). The swelling empires swallowed other smaller countries to pay their contributions or fief. The leaders of the Roman legions had priority in dividing up the spoils and conquering colonies. In the Middle Ages, the rulers fought with their neighbors to subjugate them and so force them to pay their fief.
The situation did not change for centuries. Only the decorations were exchanged. Just look at the phenomenon of the United States. They based their power on the dollar. They didn’t force their allies to pay in a bandit manner. No, it was enough for “satellites” to use dollars. This was the basis of the famous Marshall Plan and support for the Saudi dynasty in the Middle East. The Saudis gained the support of the U.S., but in return they were to trade oil only for American currency.
The power of the dollar
And at this point, we are already approaching the reasons for what has been happening in the Middle East for many years. The United States needs their dollar to be strong or just too strong for it. This allows this superpower to print its currency without the risk of falling into a crisis on the scale of the one that hit this superpower nearly 100 years ago.
The dollar is losing its value anyway, but in such a way that it’s on the US side. The recipients of the USD buy American products with it, drive the American economy and in a way pay their fief fee. However, if the demand for dollars fell, Wall Street, Congress and the White House would have a big problem.
Iraq is rebelling
Let’s first recall the situation with Iraq. The war with this country broke out after the attack on the World Trade Center in 2001. A year earlier, in 2000, something much more interesting happened. Saddam Hussein, an Iranian dictator, wanted to stop accepting dollars in exchange for oil. If he could do this, he could probably be followed by other countries. And that would have already undermined the position of the giant, the USA.
Iraq was thinking about trading with the euro, yen or dinar. Such a step would strengthen the European Union and probably Japan. Perhaps the Middle East would have made a big difference to its independence in the monetary area. So there would be a lot of “green” ones on the market, which nobody would want now. Brick inflation in the USA!
The administration of George W. Bush did not decide to go to war with Iraq in order to take revenge for the World Trade Center (which was only a pretext for conflict for ordinary citizens, who do not need to understand the meanings of politics and economy) or even to take over oil fields managed by Iraq. No, it was about defending the dollar.
Anyway, today few countries go to war for themselves. It is excessive military effort and the need to maintain an extensive administration and army that leads to the collapse of empires. It is enough to remember again the fate of the Roman Empire, which even had to spoil its coin to pay the legionnaires who guarded its borders against the barbarians. For a similar reason, after World War II Europe (especially Great Britain) fell out of the 1st league of regions that ruled the world. The United Kingdom went into over-indebtedness, as did the Third Reich, which allowed the US to take over the baton.
As you can see, the US elite can learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. They must defend their economic interests and treat war as the last step they can take.
Iran hits the US
At this point we come to Iran, which has assembled a veritable ‘nuclear’ weapon, which could blow up the power of the dollar. This weapon is of course the famous Iranian Oil Exchange. Its inauguration has been repeatedly postponed. Eventually, it started operating on February 17, 2008.
The mechanism of the exchange is ultimately deadly for the US. Iran settles oil transactions in… euro. What does that mean in practice? Well, anyone who wants to buy oil from Iran must first purchase the euro.
Europeans, for example, who no longer have to buy dollars to buy oil, benefit from it. The Chinese and Japanese, on the other hand, can also become partly independent of the dollar. In addition, the Saxo Bank experts suggest that Asia will also think about issuing its common currency this year, which will help it to break away from the US dollar empire even partially. Not to mention the plans for eco, the currency of Africa, which is to have a foothold – again! – in euros. The situation also makes Russia happy, as it likes to hit the US, which it sees as a major competitor on the planet. And Arab oil-exporting countries are keen to adopt the euro as a means of diversification.
Not only that, but two years ago Iran announced that all foreign transactions would be made in euros, which was an additional slap in the face for the US.
The collapse of the giant?
The two largest oil exchanges are NYMEX in New York and the London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Both are in practice in the hands of the USA, while the British, when they see the problems of the Americans in some time, will probably sooner or later change the front so as not to have economic problems (especially after the brexite). Sooner or later the Iranian Oil Exchange may prove to be a very dangerous rival for NYMEX and IPE.
The implications of the above may prove to be a very strong blow to the USA. Especially for the administration of Donald Trump, who is trying to re-elect this year. Strengthening competition for NYMEX will certainly not bring him support from the US oil lobby. The presidential campaign costs a lot. In politics, the winner is the one who has more funds for marketing (there are exceptions, but it is doubtful that Trump’s ego would allow him to take such a risk).
So will there be open military actions in Iran with the participation of American boys? Despite the chilling opinions of experts and analysts for the Middle East, it is real. The assassination of General Kasem Suleimani last Thursday was only a warning and a yellow card for Tehran. But if Iran does not listen to the warning, it can expect more decisive action.
But there is another scenario. The US will not attack, and the Iranian Oil Exchange will grow in strength. As a result, it will hit the dollar, and this is the foundation of the power of the United States. So, is there going to be a change of hegemon soon?